February 14th, 2024

Teetering. On Monday, I issued a short signal in NQ, and now it’s teetering around the 17,680 mark – this will confirm whether we are still heading lower or if it’s just a temporary dip before returning back up. As it stands, the NQ is still above 17,680, which makes me cautious about shorting. I still have some puts on, but if I were in futures, I’d be flat. I’ve bought myself some time with options, and unless we close below 17,680 today, I think NQ could be heading back up.

ES is displaying signs of weakness now. To me, the key level is 4995 and presently, the ES is below it. As long as the ES closes below 4995, I’ll be searching for shorts intra-day and using options for swing shorts. The target is 4891, and if we close below 4995 again today, I believe we’ll hit that target by end of next week. The bears have been losing too many battles; without NQ dropping below 17,680, I’d caution against large short positions in ES. For the market to turn lower, the bears need full participation.

RTY is a definite no-trade for me. It’s been rangebound since the start of the year, and I see no advantage in that market. It’s looking for a leader, but hasn’t found one yet.

The major concern is the 10 YR, with yields rising above 4.3% and seemingly heading higher. I’m not sure how this is giving any bulls confidence in their positions. If rates start climbing again today, I predict it will negatively impact stocks across the board.

Stay small and smart. Don’t rush anything in this market – let it come to you. Opportunities will arise.

Cheers, DELI