April 26th, 2024 We have a tradeable low. The daily Bollinger Bands have stopped expanding outward and have moved inward, signaling a low that we can trade off of in ES, ZN, and RTY. NQ is still in range expansion, but I expect that if we close positive today, they will also have a low […]
April 25th, 2024 Tug of War. Sometimes trends just aren’t clear. I know as traders we want things in black and white, but a lot of times markets are in the gray, where things are foggy and we have tug of wars. Right now, there is a fight in the market taking place where I […]
April 23rd, 2024 Forming a bottom: Yesterday was a good hold for the bulls as they stopped the bleeding to the downside, and the daily charts are starting to round out, forming what could be a bottom. When it comes to forming a bottom, I look at a few things: Did the market experience some […]
April 22nd, 2024 We are still in a range expansion. The markets may be bouncing this morning, but there’s still no clear sign that a low is in place to trade off of. The daily Bollinger Bands continue to widen on the daily charts, indicating range expansion, and the 10-year yields continue to make new […]
April 19th, 2024 Capitulation low? Maybe, but the bulls aren’t out of the woods yet. Lows like last night can be ‘the low’ as a headline took us lower, and we did see a capitulation-type of low made, but the technicals are still bearish in the medium term, and I expect it to be very […]
April 18th, 2024 Rallies are not sticky. Inflation may be sticky, but rallies right now are likely not. Market environments may feel like they change daily in this volatile market, but that’s because day traders are so focused on the short term they lose sight of the medium term. There is typically a side of […]
April 17th, 2024 Inflation acknowledged. Fed Chair Powell finally acknowledges that inflation is a concern again in his speech yesterday. The Fed has continued to talk about cutting rates, but the bond market and the fed funds market haven’t believed them for months. The stock market was doing its best to ignore bonds, but as […]
April 16th, 2024 Range Expansion: Yesterday’s daily closes in the indexes are all signaling range expansion to the downside. Geopolitical tensions and higher interest rates from the selloff we’ve been seeing in bonds are finally starting to cause some cracks in this bull market. How long it will last, we don’t know, but for now, […]
April 15th, 2024 The selloff that didn’t happen. On Saturday, I wrote on X: ‘I learned long ago never to make assumptions about how the market will open or react based on a war. Such actions only create a hidden bias. Don’t waste your energy on guessing.’ This weekend, people were on X in full […]
April 12th, 2024 In search of a good low or high to trade off of. We conclude the week with the same clarity of direction we began with, stuck in a two-way market that’s trying to find a good low or high to trade off. Yet, we’ve not located one. When the market discovers a […]