January 29th, 2024
The week is filled with events that are out of our control: QRA announcements, FOMC meeting, Big Tech earnings, unemployment data, and possibly a few other things I didn’t mention. When faced with weeks like this, I try not to dwell on these potential market influencers. Instead, I prioritize what I can control: my risk and trade decisions.
Observing the charts, I see a promising week ahead with potential for an upside move in ES, finally reaching my target of 4974. The bulls are persistently defending the modest 5-day SMA, and the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continue to expand, indicating a steady upward grind.
The NQ has already hit my target price, (17,777) but with Big Tech earnings on the horizon, it’s not currently a favorable option for trade setups. Although the NQ appears bullish, there is potential slippage in the tape, which diminishes my interest in it for now.
RTY is playing catch-up to ES and NQ, and its performance is heavily dependent on rate fluctuations this week. Due to the chart patterns and rate dependency, I find RTY less appealing for trade setups this week.
ES remains my primary focus as I hold a long position in SPY for my long-term swing account. As a day trader, I will continue seeking buying opportunities during dips. While I will remain aware of news and other external factors that are beyond my control, unless ES closes a daily bar below the 5-day SMA or the daily Bollinger Bands flatten or turn inward, I will maintain my bullish outlook and aim to test the 4974 level this week.
Remember to focus on what you can control: your risk and trade decisions. Don’t worry about the rest that is beyond your control. Stay vigilant and act smart.