April 15th, 2024

The selloff that didn’t happen. On Saturday, I wrote on X: ‘I learned long ago never to make assumptions about how the market will open or react based on a war. Such actions only create a hidden bias. Don’t waste your energy on guessing.’ This weekend, people were on X in full force with their market predictions following the situation between Iran and Israel without any information from the market itself.

The bears will always be searching for these times to prove they are right. I try to live my life as a trader who doesn’t need to be right or the first one in a move. I just need to enjoy the process and execute based on the market we have. The market we have now is mostly a two-way tape with an underlying bid to it. The market doesn’t take bad news and run lower; it takes it on the chin and squeezes out the weak hands.

With the geopolitical backdrop, I’m not sure if this lasts for the bulls because we are not in favorable conditions for new ATHs. It’s about being small, not forcing trades, and focusing on your short-term strategy.

Expect a lot of volatility, but not much follow-through for now. Just be small, smart, and remove your hidden biases.

No key levels for today, just keep an eye on the Bond market. Bonds are down, and if they continue to rise, rates may become relevant again. For now, the Equity bulls are not interested in higher rates to push the tape lower, but that can change quickly.

Cheers, DELI

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