November 27th, 2023

In my morning analysis, I keep things really simple and look for one of three different market environments. I use Bollinger Bands, VWAPs, and RSI to determine the most likely market environment for the day. I don’t search for answers; the market environment should be clear and obvious to spot. If it’s not, then you’re searching for trades, and that’s the path to the poorhouse.

Currently, the markets are rangebound without clarity on their next move. It’s a wait and see game on the daily charts over the next several sessions to see if they lean towards an upward or downward trend. But for now, it’s a sideways tape from where I sit.

Here’s why I think we’re sideways. When I pull up my hourly charts, the Bollinger Bands are getting tighter and coiling up with lower peak highs and higher peak lows. We’ve seen the RSI go from overbought to oversold in ES and NQ. The VWAPs have been relatively flat over the past several sessions, so I removed them from my charts.

The Macro Traders and Options Traders may be predicting a bullish or bearish move, and they might be smarter than me. But as a simple man, I prefer to let things play out until I have a clear view of how I want to be positioned. Let the market be what it is for now; you don’t have to have a position or bias on the next move. When the next move shows itself (because it always does), be ready to take it down. Until then, slow things down and watch. Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving! Cheers, DELI