May 30th, 2024

Was the number good? Was the number bad? Ask two different economists, and these days you’re likely to get two different answers. That’s why we as traders focus on reactions, not what we think the numbers should do to the market.

This morning, bonds got a little bounce as yields come down, giving bulls in equities a minor sigh of relief. However, in the short term, it seems ES will struggle to hold rallies.

The daily Bollinger Bands have started moving inward. We’ve seen multiple closes below short-term SMAs, and coming off a slightly overbought high, it makes sense to expect some sellers in this area.

In the short term, I anticipate this market struggling to hold rallies, with ES likely heading towards 5201 in the next week or so. If we see closes above 5328, I believe bulls will regain momentum and push to new highs.

For NQ, I view 18,780-830 as a short-term pivotal area. I’m not too keen on shorting NQ at the moment, but it could signal lower for ES if it fails to recover that area.

RTY remains a two-way tape with no clear leadership, influenced by what rates are doing.

I am short-term bearish but long-term bullish. Keep your positions small and be nimble.

Here is a link to a video where I discuss my full technical thoughts:

Cheers, DELI

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