April 16th, 2024 Range Expansion: Yesterday’s daily closes in the indexes are all signaling range expansion to the downside. Geopolitical tensions and higher interest rates from the selloff we’ve been seeing in bonds are finally starting to cause some cracks in this bull market. How long it will last, we don’t know, but for now, […]
April 15th, 2024 The selloff that didn’t happen. On Saturday, I wrote on X: ‘I learned long ago never to make assumptions about how the market will open or react based on a war. Such actions only create a hidden bias. Don’t waste your energy on guessing.’ This weekend, people were on X in full […]
April 12th, 2024 In search of a good low or high to trade off of. We conclude the week with the same clarity of direction we began with, stuck in a two-way market that’s trying to find a good low or high to trade off. Yet, we’ve not located one. When the market discovers a […]
April 11th, 2024 As Ozzy Osbourne famously sang in his hit song, ‘The road to nowhere leads to me.’ Although I can’t claim to fully grasp Osbourne’s lyrical intent, it feels apt for this market. After consuming all the recent news and data, the market doesn’t currently show a clear direction; it becomes either a […]
April 10th, 2024 The core is hot. The CPI figures may have taken the market aback, but should it really be a surprise? Unless you’ve been out of the loop, we’ve all recognized that inflation continues to loom large in our lives. The 10-year yields have been steadily increasing, signaling that rate cuts are improbable. […]
April 9th, 2024 The three O’s: overthinking, overreading, and overtrading are common pitfalls in this tight market. With indexes boxed into narrow ranges and volatility sucked out, we’re seeing a quiet upward grind. Less seasoned traders might subconsciously start faltering, feeling an urge to force action. Time can feel like an enemy for traders in […]
April 8th, 2024 Interest rates are up, but stocks seem dismissive. Perhaps the eclipse has temporarily blinded stocks to today’s interest rates, as the 10 YR hits a new high yield for the year. Unlike last week, when new high rates resulted in stocks being sold off, today’s activity suggests the markets are somewhat indifferent. […]
April 5th, 2024
Iran, unemployment, no rate cuts – the market has been bombarded with a plethora of news in the past 24 hours. Iran is threatening retaliation, Kashkari and Goolsbee have both expressed that the Fed may not need to apply cuts in 2024. Additionally, we have seen better than expected Non-Farm payroll numbers, which questions why […]
April 4th, 2024
Rates in a Range. Rates are the primary subject in markets currently, but as I mentioned yesterday, unless they significantly spike from here, I believe equities will disregard them (for now). We’ve seen a high in Yields, but it seems we might just settle back in the range, and if anything, we could slowly rise, […]
April 3rd, 2024 Yields higher, Indexes lower. With yields making new highs for the year, the indexes can’t ignore. However, I will say this: the move thus far in the indexes has been lackluster, which gives me pause to think that this sell-off in the indexes has legs. Of course, I will let the technicals […]