This week is a chartfest bonanza of what I think is worth noting over the past week and looking at Q2 data
US: tighter credit conditions, weakening demand for credits Tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on the economy. Historically, this has been followed by an increase in bankruptcies with a lag of 6-9 months (Bernberg)
US WEEKLY HIGH FREQUENCY DATA
Strong first-half gains have often carried through to healthy full year returns.
SEB updated forecasts
US Inflation
US consumer spending — the economy’s main engine — has lost steam for most of this year, portending weaker growth ahead while also helping to cool inflation. That weakness contrasts with recent data that have otherwise painted a picture of a resilient economy rather than one on the brink of recession.
Europe inflation
Germany -I have been noting this for a while now deindustrialization
Moving on to China data
According to BBG NEF data, China mobility is still “meh”
Regarding Oil-oil on water is falling via Vortexa (OPEC voluntary cuts do not start until July 1)
Midyear Performance Check via Edward Jones
Last week closed the books on the first half of 2023. The headliner: it was a strong start. Though gains so far may have flown somewhat under the radar for some investors as the scars of 2022 may not yet have fully healed. At the midway point last year, stocks were down 20% and bonds had lost 10%, on their way to full year returns of -18% and -13%, respectively.
Fortunately, the first half of 2023 has been more rewarding, helped by a more favorable outlook for Fed policy and inflation as well as a surprisingly resilient economy. Overall market gains have been healthy, but trends playing out under the surface highlight unique drivers of that performance, a balance of risk and opportunity, as well as the value of a diversified strategy. Here are a few perspectives on first half moves and what they signal for what may lay ahead in the second half.
Tech sector outperformance has been a key theme so far this year.
I think this is about to change…but no one likes the DOW
Longer-term rates have leveled off this year after rising sharply in 2022.
The economy has held up well in 2023 thanks to household spending
Small-cap stocks are signaling glimmers of hope for a soft landing in the economy.
Strong first-half gains have often carried through to healthy full year returns.
Sector performance H2
WEEKLY MARKET STATS
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