October 31st, 2023
The bulls have slowed the bears’ momentum, but haven’t completely halted it. The market is currently locked in a battle for leadership. Despite a positive day for the bulls yesterday, they haven’t regained full control. To favor the bulls, I’m looking for two key indicators: the daily Bollinger Bands tightening inward (which hasn’t happened yet) and a move above the anchored VWAP from mid-October at 4216.50. Until both of these conditions are met, I believe the market leans bearish, with a likelihood of a two-way tape. This makes sense considering the upcoming FOMC meeting and AAPL earnings. (Here is a video I did explaining exactly what I’m looking for with the VWAPs and BB’s https://x.com/AnthonyCrudele/status/1719333049639272877?s=20 )
My plan for today: I’ve outlined the anticipated range on my hourly chart as 4216.50-4157. Since I expect a choppy market with a slight advantage for the bears, I’ll be very selective in my trades. I’ll focus on opportunities at the edges of the range, around 4209-4216 and 4168-4157.
For short opportunities, I’ll use the 3-minute opening range with RTH VWAP and Standard Deviation lines as my guide when the market reaches 4209-416. For long opportunities, I’ll rely on the same guide when the market drops to 4168-4157.
Remember, understanding the market environment is crucial. Currently, the range doesn’t provide clear trading signals, so I’ll patiently wait for tests on the range boundaries. Keep it light and tight today. Cheers, DELI