November 20th, 2023

Remember that movie Sideways? A struggling writer and wine enthusiast, Paul Giamatti, takes his engaged friend on a wine country trip for a last single-guy bonding experience. They drink, meet some girls, and things get a bit sideways. That’s how I see the markets right now. Bulls started the party a few weeks back, but now it seems like things have gotten sideways. So, what’s next? We wait. As a day trader, it’s tempting to search for an edge every morning, but sometimes it’s best to acknowledge when there’s no edge and stay on the sidelines. I don’t see an edge in this tape, so I’m patiently waiting for things to change.

Here’s what I see in the Indexes right now:

ES: 4523.50 remains the pivot. If we continue to get hourly closes above that area, I think we keep grinding higher. It’ll probably be a tough trade because NQ and RTY are still in sell zones on their 60-minute charts. My bigger picture target is 4600, and as long as we can sustain trading above 4523.50, I believe that’s where we’re headed in the coming sessions. However, if we fail to hold above 4523.50, it could be a bumpy road down to 4473.

NQ: Still boxed in a sell zone on the 60-minute chart, but the daily chart is very bullish. As long as the NQ remains below 15,927, it could drift lower and test 15,739. However, if we get an hourly close above 15,927, then the market sentiment turns bullish and we can grind higher. This would be a significant boost for ES.

RTY: Similar to the NQ, it is boxed in a sell zone on the 60-minute chart, but the daily chart is bullish. As long as RTY remains below 1816-13, I believe it can test 1760. RTY favors the short side until we get that hourly close above 1813, then the market sentiment shifts back to bullish and we can grind higher. This would uplift the entire market.

Holiday week with some data and NVDA earnings that may move the tape, but overall, I expect choppy sessions. I’ve ruined many holidays by trying to force trades to squeak out a few bucks. Don’t ruin your holiday. Be small and smart. Cheers, DELI.

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